Research
Uncertainty: Impact on Economy and Financial Markets
“Uncertainty” is not just a nebulous concept. It is identifiable as Economic Policy Uncertainty, Political Uncertainty, or a combined measure of Uncertainty. It can be measured for the U.S and globally, and its impact on the economy and financial markets has been analyzed and quantified
How much does the Fed really ‘control’ the 10-year Treasury yield?
The biggest driver of the 10-year treasury yield is the term premium, NOT the Fed funds rate. The term premium is a variable outside the Fed’s control and impacted primarily by global factors.
Quit Ratio: A Leading Indicator in Labor Market
It is important to interpret the information content of economic indicators based on whether they are leading, lagging or coincident indicators.