Inflation Outlook: So Many and Contradictory Forces on Inflation
An outlook on growth and inflation is the starting point for all capital market assumptions, strategic asset allocation, tactical investment strategies and portfolio construction. There are many factors impacting inflation - whether they are cyclical or structural issues, the timing of their impact, whether the impact is inflationary or deflationary, and if inflationary then ‘good’ or ‘bad’ inflation. This research analyzes some key issues like Covid impact at different time horizons, Federal Reserve Bank’s new inflation targeting model, climate change issues for agriculture and energy markets, supply chain issues, geopolitics and demographic changes. It identifies the net impact and the most probable outlook being inflation picking from mid-2021 for a year or two, followed by moderating to levels close to central bank targets over the coming economic cycle. The portfolio construction implications would be to under-weight duration in fixed income for the next few years. It would also indicate it is a good time to invest in assets that usually perform well during periods of inflation, namely – Industrials, Materials, Real Estate, REITs, Commodities, Inflation protected (TIPs).